Viewing archive of Sunday, 7 September 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 SEP 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8085 (S25E64) HAS
ROTATED INTO VIEW AS A SMALL TO MODERATELY SIZED E-TYPE SUNSPOT
GROUP. 8085 HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES INCLUDING THE
LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST DAY, A C3/SF AT 07/0620Z. REGION 8083
(S28E04) CONTINUES TO GROW BUT AT A REDUCED RATE FROM THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS. REGION 8082 (N21W04) HAS STARTED TO DECAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN REGION 8085. ADDITIONAL SUBFLARES
ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8082 AND 8083 AS WELL. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS EVENT PREDOMINATELY FROM 8085.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
WAS NORMAL TO MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 08 SEP to 10 SEP
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 SEP 102 Predicted 08 SEP-10 SEP 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 07 SEP 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 SEP 008/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 SEP 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 SEP-10 SEP 005/008-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 SEP to 10 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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