Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 October 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 OCT 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGIONS 8090 (S27E15) AND 8091 (N23E34) HAVE BOTH DECAYED SLOWLY AND WERE BOTH RELATIVELY QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AS A WELL-POSITIONED EXTENTION OF THE NORTHERN CORONAL HOLE MOVES INTO A GEOEFFECTIVELY FAVORABLE POSITION.
III. Event Probabilities 05 OCT to 07 OCT
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 OCT 083
  Predicted   05 OCT-07 OCT  082/082/082
  90 Day Mean        04 OCT 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 OCT  007/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 OCT  005/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 OCT-07 OCT  010/008-020/020-020/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 OCT to 07 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%10%10%

All times in UTC

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