Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 October 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 OCT 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGIONS 8090 (S27E15) AND
8091 (N23E34) HAVE BOTH DECAYED SLOWLY AND WERE BOTH RELATIVELY
QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AS A WELL-POSITIONED EXTENTION OF THE NORTHERN
CORONAL HOLE MOVES INTO A GEOEFFECTIVELY FAVORABLE POSITION.
III. Event Probabilities 05 OCT to 07 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 OCT 083 Predicted 05 OCT-07 OCT 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 04 OCT 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 OCT 007/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 OCT 005/004 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 OCT-07 OCT 010/008-020/020-020/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 OCT to 07 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
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