Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 October 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 OCT 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. FLARES WERE MORE FREQUENT DURING THE PERIOD, BUT NONE EXCEEDED B-CLASS. REGION 8100 (S19E30) HAD THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY AS IT GREW IN WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA. REGION 8099 (N20W03) IS LESS IMPRESSIVE IN H-ALPHA, BUT MORE MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX THAN 8100. THE LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. REGION 8100 SHOULD BEGIN TO GENERATE C-CLASS ACTIVITY IF ITS GROWTH CONTINUES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED, ALTHOUGH WEAK SUBSTORMS AGAIN BROUGHT SHORT-LIVED ACTIVE CONDITIONS TO HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS JUST AFTER 1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH 02 NOV. WEAK SUBSTORMS MAY OCCUR DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES.
III. Event Probabilities 31 OCT to 02 NOV
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 OCT 088
  Predicted   31 OCT-02 NOV  090/090/095
  90 Day Mean        30 OCT 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 OCT  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 OCT  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 OCT-02 NOV  010/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 OCT to 02 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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