Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 September 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 19/2014Z from Region 3435 (N09E42). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Sep, 21 Sep, 22 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 698 km/s at 19/0833Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 18/2204Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 18/2149Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2068 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (20 Sep, 22 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
Class M40%40%40%
Class X01%05%05%
Proton01%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Sep 166
  Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep 162/160/155
  90 Day Mean        19 Sep 162

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  021/041
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Sep  037/050
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  014/016-008/008-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%35%
Minor storm10%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm20%20%50%

All times in UTC

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