Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 August 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Aug 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/2304Z from Region 3405 (N09W33). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 495 km/s at 22/2125Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
23/2031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
22/2253Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 362 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Aug, 25 Aug)
and quiet levels on day three (26 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 147 Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 150/155/155 90 Day Mean 23 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 012/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/17 | Kp6 (G2) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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