Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 September 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at
20/1419Z from Region 3435 (N09E29). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (21 Sep, 22 Sep, 23 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 19/2211Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 20/0548Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
20/0859Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2923 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (21 Sep, 23
Sep) and quiet to active levels on day two (22 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Sep 156 Predicted 21 Sep-23 Sep 155/152/153 90 Day Mean 20 Sep 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep 038/038 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep 012/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 008/008-011/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 50% | 50% |
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