Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 October 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 17/0505Z from Region 3463 (S17W44). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct, 20 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 338 km/s at 16/2140Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 166 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Oct), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (19 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (20 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Oct 137
  Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct 140/140/140
  90 Day Mean        17 Oct 157

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Oct  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  008/008-014/018-015/022

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%40%35%
Minor storm05%25%25%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm25%60%55%

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