Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 May 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at 20/1235Z from Region 3311 (N18E47). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 May, 22 May, 23 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 607 km/s at 20/2018Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 20/0323Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 20/0900Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 146 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 May, 22 May) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (23 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 May, 22 May, 23 May).
III. Event Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
Class M75%75%75%
Class X35%35%35%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 May 170
  Predicted   21 May-23 May 168/160/155
  90 Day Mean        20 May 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 May  010/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 May  024/034
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May  010/012-011/012-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%35%
Minor storm10%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm40%25%20%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

44%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/03/28X1.1
Last M-flare2024/04/21M2.2
Last geomagnetic storm2024/04/19Kp7 (G3)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
March 2024104.9 -19.8
Last 30 days117.1 +18.1

This day in history*

Solar flares
12002X2.2
22022M9.7
32015M5.78
42003M4.14
52015M3.26
ApG
1201717G1
2200322G1
3199720G1
4201522
5199912
*since 1994

Social networks