Viewing archive of Friday, 16 June 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/0530Z from Region 3337 (N17E59). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Jun, 18 Jun,
19 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 696 km/s at 15/2156Z. Total IMF
reached 20 nT at 15/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 16/0231Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 417 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (17 Jun, 19 Jun)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jun 157 Predicted 17 Jun-19 Jun 160/160/155 90 Day Mean 16 Jun 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun 017/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun 027/042 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 011/012-008/008-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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