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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 16/0530Z from Region 3337 (N17E59). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Jun, 18 Jun, 19 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 696 km/s at 15/2156Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 15/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 16/0231Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 417 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (17 Jun, 19 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jun 157
  Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun 160/160/155
  90 Day Mean        16 Jun 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  017/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jun  027/042
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  011/012-008/008-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%10%25%
Minor storm10%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%15%20%
Major-severe storm25%10%35%

All times in UTC

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