Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 July 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 13/1920Z from Region 3372 (N24E53). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (14 Jul, 15 Jul) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (16 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 12/2124Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 13/1624Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 13/1634Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 443 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Jul), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (15 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (14 Jul, 15 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
Class M55%55%50%
Class X20%15%15%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jul 203
  Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul 200/202/198
  90 Day Mean        13 Jul 160

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jul  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  012/014-016/020-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%35%
Minor storm10%25%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%20%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm20%40%30%

All times in UTC

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