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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 23/0640Z from Region 3279 (S19W78). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (24 Apr) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day two (25 Apr) and likely to be low on day three (26 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 733 km/s at 23/2057Z. Total IMF reached 29 nT at 23/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -24 nT at 23/1710Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 26 pfu at 23/1820Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (24 Apr), quiet to active levels on day two (25 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (26 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (24 Apr) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (25 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
Class M25%25%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton25%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Apr 135
  Predicted   24 Apr-26 Apr 135/130/125
  90 Day Mean        23 Apr 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Apr  039/069
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr  032/047-013/015-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%15%
Minor storm35%15%05%
Major-severe storm35%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%20%
Major-severe storm79%45%20%

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