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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 22/0148Z from Region 3279 (S19W64). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 22/1152Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 21/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 21/2113Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 22/2010Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 143 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Apr), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (24 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
Class M35%35%35%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Apr 141
  Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr 140/135/135
  90 Day Mean        22 Apr 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Apr  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  009/013-026/038-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%25%30%
Minor storm30%35%15%
Major-severe storm10%35%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%05%15%
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm20%79%45%

All times in UTC

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