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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
22/0148Z from Region 3279 (S19W64). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr,
25 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 22/1152Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 21/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
21/2113Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 22/2010Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 143 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Apr), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (24 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day
three (25 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 141 Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 140/135/135 90 Day Mean 22 Apr 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 009/013-026/038-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 35% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 35% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 79% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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