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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 19/0048Z from Region 3311 (N17E60). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 373 km/s at 19/2059Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 19/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 19/2038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 318 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 May, 21 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
Class M55%55%55%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 May 165
  Predicted   20 May-22 May 165/165/160
  90 Day Mean        19 May 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  008/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 May  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  009/010-010/012-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%35%
Minor storm05%10%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm30%40%30%

All times in UTC

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