Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 May 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 18/1147Z from Region 3311 (N18E76). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 May, 20 May, 21 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 18/1058Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 174 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (19 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (20 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (21 May).
III. Event Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
Class M35%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 May 151
  Predicted   19 May-21 May 145/140/140
  90 Day Mean        18 May 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 May  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 May  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May  006/005-007/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%25%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm10%25%40%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

76%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/06/10X1.55
Last M-flare2024/06/14M2.4
Last geomagnetic storm2024/06/07Kp6 (G2)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
May 2024171.7 +35.2
June 2024161.9 -9.8
Last 30 days149.7 -27

This day in history*

Solar flares
12015M2.97
22012M2.75
32024M2.4
42003M2.2
52014M2.07
ApG
1199079G4
2194762G3
3193961G3
4194040G2
5201621G2
*since 1994

Social networks