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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 14/1516Z from Region 3335 (S15E63). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun, 17 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 424 km/s at 14/1103Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 14/0222Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/2237Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 173 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (15 Jun, 17 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day two (16 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
Class M15%15%15%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jun 144
  Predicted   15 Jun-17 Jun 150/150/155
  90 Day Mean        14 Jun 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  008/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jun  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  007/008-012/014-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%25%20%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

All times in UTC

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