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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 01/0107Z from Region 3234 (N25W49). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 721 km/s at 28/2253Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/0756Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/2347Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3729 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Mar), quiet levels on day two (03 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (04 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
Class M50%45%45%
Class X15%15%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Mar 162
  Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar 164/162/158
  90 Day Mean        01 Mar 168

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  019/024
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Mar  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  008/008-006/005-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%30%
Minor storm05%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%30%
Major-severe storm30%20%40%

All times in UTC

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