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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 02/1210Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (03 Mar, 04 Mar) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (05 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 571 km/s at 01/2142Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 02/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/2056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3374 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (04 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (05 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar, 05 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
Class M45%45%30%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Mar 169
  Predicted   03 Mar-05 Mar 165/165/165
  90 Day Mean        02 Mar 169

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Mar  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  006/005-010/012-014/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%35%
Minor storm01%10%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%30%25%
Major-severe storm20%40%55%

All times in UTC

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