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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 28/1547Z from Region 3256 (S22W62). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Mar, 30 Mar, 31 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 474 km/s at 28/0022Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/2242Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/2242Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1813 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (30 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (31 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Mar 159
  Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar 160/155/150
  90 Day Mean        28 Mar 172

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Mar  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  006/005-012/018-013/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%35%
Minor storm01%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%30%
Major-severe storm20%45%50%

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