Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 February 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 01/2248Z from Region 3204 (N24W86). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 02/1554Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 01/2134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/2157Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 142 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Feb 135
  Predicted   03 Feb-05 Feb 135/140/140
  90 Day Mean        02 Feb 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Feb  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb  007/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%10%10%

All times in UTC

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