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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 20 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 20/0152Z from Region 3190 (S15W18). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan, 23 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1032 km/s at 20/0819Z. Total IMF reached 33 nT at 20/0536Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/1331Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 223 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 Jan, 22 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan, 23 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
Class M60%60%55%
Class X10%10%10%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Jan 218
  Predicted   21 Jan-23 Jan 215/210/210
  90 Day Mean        20 Jan 147

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Jan  008/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  009/012-011/008-008/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm30%35%20%

All times in UTC

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