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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 20/2247Z from Region 3192 (N16W15). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 21/0908Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21/0625Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 21/0716Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 243 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (22 Jan, 24 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (23 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
Class M55%55%55%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jan 209
  Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan 205/200/205
  90 Day Mean        21 Jan 149

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jan  014/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  011/012-008/008-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%10%25%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm30%20%25%

All times in UTC

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