Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 January 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 19/1012Z from Region 3196 (N12E31). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (20 Jan, 21 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (22 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s at 19/0756Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 19/0922Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/1042Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 176 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (20 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (20 Jan, 21 Jan) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (22 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
Class M60%60%50%
Class X15%15%10%
Proton10%10%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Jan 219
  Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan 220/220/215
  90 Day Mean        19 Jan 146

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  011/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jan  011/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  013/015-012/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm35%30%25%

All times in UTC

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