Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 December 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
24/0414Z from Region 3169 (N20W21). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Dec,
26 Dec, 27 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 24/1012Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 24/0218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 24/0359Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1509 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Dec, 26 Dec) and
unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (27 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 133 Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 133/135/136 90 Day Mean 24 Dec 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 019/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 020/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 018/020-015/018-023/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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