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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 24/0414Z from Region 3169 (N20W21). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec, 27 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 24/1012Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 24/0218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/0359Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1509 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Dec, 26 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (27 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
Class M10%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Dec 133
  Predicted   25 Dec-27 Dec 133/135/136
  90 Day Mean        24 Dec 133

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec  019/024
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Dec  020/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec  018/020-015/018-023/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%20%50%

All times in UTC

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