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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 03/1011Z from Region 3110 (N18W65). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (04 Oct) and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days two and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 631 km/s at 03/1218Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 03/1744Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 03/1900Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 282 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (04 Oct), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (05 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (04 Oct), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (05 Oct) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (06 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
Class M75%70%70%
Class X35%35%35%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Oct 155
  Predicted   04 Oct-06 Oct 154/152/148
  90 Day Mean        03 Oct 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Oct  023/032
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  028/040-015/020-010/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm35%10%15%
Major-severe storm20%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%30%20%
Major-severe storm65%25%35%

All times in UTC

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