Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 October 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
02/2025Z from Region 3110 (N17W52). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04
Oct, 05 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 588 km/s at 02/2039Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 02/2015Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
02/2031Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 145 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Oct), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (04 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (05 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 154 Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 155/155/145 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 016/020-027/040-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 40% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 65% | 25% |
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