Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
06/1833Z from around the West limb. There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Sep,
08 Sep, 09 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 622 km/s at 06/0112Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 05/2201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 06/0004Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 7271 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Sep), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (08 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (09 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 126 Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 125/122/120 90 Day Mean 06 Sep 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 021/035 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 010/012-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
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