Viewing archive of Wednesday, 7 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/0141Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Sep,
09 Sep, 10 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 608 km/s at 07/0027Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 07/1910Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
07/1612Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 15367 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (08 Sep,
09 Sep, 10 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Sep 126 Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 07 Sep 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 014/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 008/010-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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