Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 October 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
03/2122Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (05 Oct, 06 Oct)
and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day three (07 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 605 km/s at 04/1444Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 03/2340Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
03/2336Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 414 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one
(05 Oct), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (06 Oct) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (07 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| Class M | 65% | 60% | 55% |
| Class X | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Proton | 35% | 25% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 152 Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 152/150/148 90 Day Mean 04 Oct 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 016/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 017/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 013/016-010/014-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 20% |
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