Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
08/0947Z from Region 3098 (N15E17). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Sep,
10 Sep, 11 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 592 km/s at 07/2135Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 08/0139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/1635Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 22580 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Sep, 10 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (11 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Sep 127 Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 08 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 012/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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