Viewing archive of Friday, 9 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/0213Z from Region 3096 (N16E33). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Sep,
11 Sep, 12 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 08/2308Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 09/0658Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
09/0950Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 11844 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Sep to 12 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Sep 126 Predicted 10 Sep-12 Sep 127/127/125 90 Day Mean 09 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep 017/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep to 12 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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