Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
28/0047Z from Region 3107 (S28W25). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (29 Sep) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (30 Sep,
01 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 621 km/s at 27/2202Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 27/2130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
27/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 120 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Sep), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (30 Sep) and minor storm to major storm levels
on day three (01 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on day one (29 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| Class M | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Sep 135 Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 135/130/130 90 Day Mean 28 Sep 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 033/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 007/008-014/020-038/060
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 50% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 45% | 75% |
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