Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
29/1201Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct,
02 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 29/1416Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 29/0614Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/0728Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 133 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (30 Sep), minor storm to
major storm levels on day two (01 Oct) and active to minor storm levels
on day three (02 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 137 Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 148/146/146 90 Day Mean 29 Sep 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 014/020-038/060-029/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 75% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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