Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 October 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
26/1243Z from Region 3133 (N26E60). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Oct,
28 Oct, 29 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 389 km/s at 25/2247Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
26/1908Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
26/1940Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 187 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Oct), quiet to active
levels on day two (28 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(29 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 122 Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 120/118/118 90 Day Mean 26 Oct 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 172/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 008/010-010/014-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 50% | 60% |
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Space weather facts
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| Last M-flare | 2024/05/14 | M2.5 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/13 | Kp6 (G2) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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