Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 October 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
25/1903Z from Region 3133 (N26E73). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Oct,
27 Oct, 28 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 497 km/s at 24/2109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 269 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (27 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (28 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 116 Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 116/114/112 90 Day Mean 25 Oct 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 204/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 005/005-006/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 25% | 40% |
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