Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
01/1358Z from Region 3092 (S09E67). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep,
04 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 601 km/s at 01/0553Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 31/2232Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
31/2227Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 170 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Sep), quiet to active
levels on day two (03 Sep) and unsettled to major storm levels on day
three (04 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days two and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| Class M | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 116 Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 116/118/118 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 012/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 009/010-012/015-021/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 30% | 65% |
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