Viewing archive of Friday, 5 August 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
05/0607Z from Region 3073 (S35W45). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug, 08 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 04/2220Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 05/0042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
05/0033Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 199 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Aug, 07 Aug)
and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 114 Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 114/114/112 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 008/008-008/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 35% |
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