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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/2306Z from Region 3068 (S15W83). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug, 11 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 669 km/s at 08/0217Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 07/2233Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 07/2209Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1641 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Aug, 10 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Aug to 11 Aug
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Aug 113
  Predicted   09 Aug-11 Aug 112/112/112
  90 Day Mean        08 Aug 125

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug  020/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Aug  023/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug  014/016-010/012-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug to 11 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%30%
Minor storm25%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm60%50%40%

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