Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
04/1638Z from Region 3089 (S23W75). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (05 Sep) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class
flares on days two and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 687 km/s at 04/1108Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 04/0147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 04/0142Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 6689 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (05 Sep) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (05
Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
| Class M | 35% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Sep 128 Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 126/122/120 90 Day Mean 04 Sep 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 023/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 040/065 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 025/034-017/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 30% | 20% |
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