Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
03/1648Z from Region 3089 (S22W61). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (04 Sep, 05 Sep) and expected to be very low with a
chance for a C-class flares on day three (06 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 588 km/s at 03/1002Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 03/0726Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 03/0847Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 309 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (04 Sep), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (05 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (06 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (04 Sep, 05 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 05% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 123 Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 122/122/118 90 Day Mean 03 Sep 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 010/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 019/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 020/030-021/028-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 60% | 35% |
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