Viewing archive of Sunday, 7 August 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Aug,
09 Aug, 10 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 619 km/s at 07/2058Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 07/1442Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
07/1401Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 193 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (09 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (10 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 116 Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 116/112/112 90 Day Mean 07 Aug 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 005/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 014/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 014/018-013/014-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 40% | 30% |
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