Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 August 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Aug,
11 Aug, 12 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 632 km/s at 09/1056Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 09/0753Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 09/0809Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 7176 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (11 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (12 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 109 Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 110/105/105 90 Day Mean 09 Aug 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 021/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 012/015-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 40% | 25% |
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