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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 07/1904Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 331 km/s at 06/2145Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 07/0024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 07/1511Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 282 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).
III. Event Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 May 075
  Predicted   08 May-10 May 075/075/077
  90 Day Mean        07 May 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 May  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  006/005-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%20%20%

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