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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jun 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Jun, 05 Jun, 06 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 321 km/s at 03/0116Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 03/0628Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/0530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Jun 076
  Predicted   04 Jun-06 Jun 075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        03 Jun 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Jun  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  008/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%10%10%

All times in UTC

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