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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Apr 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr, 13 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 09/2205Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/1848Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/1451Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 141 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Apr 070
  Predicted   11 Apr-13 Apr 071/071/071
  90 Day Mean        10 Apr 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Apr  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%20%15%

All times in UTC

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