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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 08/1845Z from Region 2822 (N18E57). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 342 km/s at 08/0739Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 07/2148Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/0836Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 303 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11 May).
III. Event Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 May 076
  Predicted   09 May-11 May 076/077/077
  90 Day Mean        08 May 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 May  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 May  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  007/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%10%

All times in UTC

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