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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 345 km/s at 01/2004Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 01/1955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/1507Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2547 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (03 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (04 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Feb 074
  Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb 074/072/072
  90 Day Mean        01 Feb 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  000/000
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Feb  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  014/018-009/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%10%
Minor storm25%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm20%30%20%
Major-severe storm60%40%10%

All times in UTC

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