Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 January 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jan 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 05/1952Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 05/1420Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 05/1351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1174 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (07 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (08 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Jan 075
  Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan 075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        05 Jan 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Jan  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  015/020-007/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%15%
Minor storm25%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm60%30%20%

All times in UTC

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