Viewing archive of Sunday, 31 January 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jan 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 329 km/s at 31/2052Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5068 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (02 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Jan 073
  Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb 073/073/072
  90 Day Mean        31 Jan 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Jan  002/002
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  013/018-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm25%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm60%40%30%

All times in UTC

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