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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 28/0646Z from Region 2804 (N18W87). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (01 Mar) and expected to be very low on days two and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 391 km/s at 28/0526Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2733 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Mar), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (02 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Feb 078
  Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar 078/074/074
  90 Day Mean        28 Feb 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Feb  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  010/012-015/018-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%40%25%
Minor storm10%25%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm40%60%40%

All times in UTC

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