Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 August 2020

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Aug 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug, 21 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 329 km/s at 18/2010Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/2038Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 18/2042Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 272 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (19 Aug, 21 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day two (20 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Aug 071
  Predicted   19 Aug-21 Aug 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        18 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Aug  006/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug  008/008-013/016-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%35%25%
Minor storm05%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%10%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm25%50%40%

All times in UTC

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