Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 August 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Aug 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug, 21 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 329 km/s at 18/2010Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
18/2038Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
18/2042Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 272 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (19 Aug, 21
Aug) and quiet to active levels on day two (20 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Aug 071 Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 18 Aug 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 008/008-013/016-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 50% | 40% |
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